From the article (which is heavy on number crunching):
At a macro level, there were 7,359,621 votes cast in the 2004 Presidential election in Texas, and 8,007,961 votes cast in 2008, for an increase of 648,340. Note that in all cases all I'm considering is the sum of the Republican and Democratic votes - third parties and write-ins are not counted. Bush/Cheney got 4,526,917 votes, while McCain/Palin got 4,479,328, for a decline of 47,589. Kerry/Edwards received 2,832,704 votes and Obama/Biden received 3,528,633, for an increase of 695,929.
I've been preaching this for years. It's all demographics.
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3.30.2010
Warning Texas: The Democrats Are Gaining
From the article (which is heavy on number crunching):
At a macro level, there were 7,359,621 votes cast in the 2004 Presidential election in Texas, and 8,007,961 votes cast in 2008, for an increase of 648,340. Note that in all cases all I'm considering is the sum of the Republican and Democratic votes - third parties and write-ins are not counted. Bush/Cheney got 4,526,917 votes, while McCain/Palin got 4,479,328, for a decline of 47,589. Kerry/Edwards received 2,832,704 votes and Obama/Biden received 3,528,633, for an increase of 695,929.
I've been preaching this for years. It's all demographics.
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34 comments:
Or a moderate Republican with a hair trigger temper leading the ticket.
Bet you a steak dinner that the Texas congressional delegation will see big Republican gains in November. (I mean bigger than normal gains for the party out of power in the mid terms)
Demographics, combined with the GOP's refusal (inability?) to adapt to them. It's not just Texas, either. If Obama manages to win re-election, we will either see a wholesale re-evaluation of the GOP platform, or else 20 years of Democratic administrations, not that I'm complaining.
GOP win in 2012 delays the inevitable, but there will simply not be enough angry white people to maintain the GOP as-is for more than a generation or so.
To Barry...
Hold on hotshot. Before you get the Democrats rejoicing and dancing nude in the streets, let us look a wee bit closer at the CAUSE of the increase of Democrat voters and decrease of Republican voters.
Most of the increase in Democrat voters was a result of young people voting for the first time and the increase in Black voters eager to making history by voting for a 1/2 Black man who made all manner of promises of "Hope and Change" and free stuff. It will be interesting to see how many young people and Blacks will, again, bother to cast a vote for Obama since realizing the promise of "Hope and Change" was nothing more than SMOKE AND MIRRORS and they are NOT going to get a bunch of free stuff from Obama.
The decrease in Republican votes had much to do with the Raging Right WingNUTZ refusing to vote for McCain because they viewed him as a Republican In Name Only.
Barry - accident @ 380 and Bus. 380. Looks like someone went when they shouldn't have. Airbag deployment.
Well who wouldn't vote for the person making the most ridiculous promises?
the dems are gaining ?
teehee, i'm lafin my ars off, barron.
after obammy gets thru, u can count em on one hand.
Take a count right now. Nov.will tell the story.
Ummm, nutcase and oldguy on 'Pub ticket vs. the O factor on the 'Dem ticket?
Yeah, I won't worry too much about that shift. Just like Dems were probably all too quick to discount the big gains the Pubs made for the last several years.
I am more worried that neither party is throwing out a charismatic, middle of the aisle candidate that is fiscally conservative. *sigh*
On a different topic... when in the heck will TxDOT fix the access to 287, S business 380? This is a terrible intersection!!! Let's see... Alvord? Entrance and exit ramps for all access onto 287. Rhome? Entrance and exit ramps for all access to 287. Sunset? Entrance and exit ramps for all access to 287. Bowie? Entrance and exit ramps for all access to 287. Haslet? Entrance and exit ramps for all access to 287. And we can't get Decatur fixed? Please... either get your priorities straight or keep sending the wreckers and ambulances to Business 380 South.
Hey BG, in the update is that the attorney Kendall Hill that was in the plane crash that passed away on Monday?
it is a simple thing democrats are racist and work hard agianst the christians and they work hard to make life harder on the hard working white american people. the democrat party in whole is summed up by these categories
1 welfare recipients
2 black power people
3 illegal immigrants
4 communist
5 baby killers
shut up, mzchief
Hold on to that wishful thinking. November is going to be a wholesale slaughter of the Dem positions.
I know the Democrats are gaining because they breed faster. Since the beginning of human history people have migrated. Wars are fought over this. Borders change and the values, beliefs, and ethnic make up of the new arrivals influence their new country and its politics. We have a choice. Enjoy the Aztec in your grandchildren and their politics or leave? I sorta think that living in New Zealand would not be bad.
My last count shows that 695,929 is exactly how many new illegal immigrants had entered the state.
The Teabaggers are going to kill the Republicans next election if they run a separate candidate. Meanwhile, Dems will hold steady.
Double Fake David Brinkley
There may not be many Democrats in Wise County but there a lot in other counties across Texas.
Does anyone know who the woman was that got hit in the Chico HS parking lot?
Hangman:
The Republican party is made up of these five factions:
1) White supremacists
2) The Energy industry (mostly the OIL industry)
3) The elderly (who, ironically, get much of their money from socialist programs like Medicare and Social Security)
4) Religious zealots
5) Southern white men who actually know very little of the policies and government which they consistently attack. You would be taken seriously if your discourse proved thoughtful - or even grammatically correct ("agianst").
Hangman 4:53, you are just like all of the other ones on here that just running their head with verbal garbage without having any facts to back up their wild accusations. I have been a Democrat for probably longer than you have lived and have never killed a baby. Also of all the Good Democrats that I have know, have never known them to kill a baby. Just because we believe in a woman’s right to make her own decisions concerning her body would be like assuming that all people who support the Republican philosophy are Gay just because of some Republican taping his toes in a bathroom in Minnesota. Are you GAY? Also I am against Communist, Illegal Immigrants, Black Power and Think that Welfare neesds to be reformed. I just think that if we help anyone, it should be someone who needs help and not Welfare for the rich.
7:09pm & 7:10pm
Thank you. Very well written.
Thank you!
Barry when the tide turns have no doubt that our local elected Republicans will turn back into Democrats.
And MzChief when that happens I will be dancing in the street. It would be great to see you do a little dance yourself. I know how incredibly attractive you are :)
And Old Timer you said it the best of all.
Mzchief's point is well made. Two specific elections don't indicate a trend. However, the larger point is this -- if the current trend that does exist continues, elections will always be won by the candidate who promises the biggest giveaways to the electorate. This has been the Democrat strategy for generations; Republicans are still learning the game. The only way to combat this trend is to teach more people the benefits of self reliance, responsibility, pride and prudence.
With the Republican party, there is at least a chance that leaders who believe those things will emerge. Democrats? Ha. They're the party of depend on the government, no consequences for your actions, don't worry about it, and someone else will pick up the tab.
Conservative principles don't have as much shallow appeal to a "gimme mine" society, but they're much better in the long run.
Mclaughlin Group aka John Mclaughlin "WRONG! Freddie 'the beatle' Barnes?
Freddie says, "You're right John. Conservatives abandoned the Republican ticket with McCain who is basically a RINO. Demoncats will suffer historic off year declines that will make them yearn for the Clinton years of 1994 and the Gingrich contract with America."
Effin' doufus, liberal, kool-aid drinking, closet communist/socialist, guilt-ridden, white lawyer, apologist.
But, I'm glad you're stay'in ignorant. Just curious...what happens when reality hits the U.S. and all the illegals get run?
Hey, Nancy Pelosi lover - before you start pointing out grammatical errors in others, try looking at your own stuff! "NancyPelosilsMyHero"
I try to stay on the topics at hand, but those of you who think we are on here for an English lesson are just too much!
Even Democrats understand 2008 was different; therefore, the growth in Democratic voters cannot be projected to grow the same in the next four years as it did from 2004to 2008! Independent voters, in polls, are not happy with Obama and especially ObamaCare. TEA parties are being energized as never before to fight run-away spending and higher taxes for the future generations.
Obama ran as a Centrists, but he is governing to the extreme far left. Most voters are center right.
The swing will go back to the middle and Obama will be out!
Houston, Austin and Dallas will still be Democratic because of all the minorities and progressives. Rural counties will remain conservative and gain while Democrats struggle to maintain the status quo.
Hey 7:10 - great post. Don't forget the Log Cabin Republicans, the goody goodies of the R's would like to forget. They'd like to shove these folks under the toilet stall - or maybe IN the toilet.
Recently, my 12 year old son has been asking me about some of the things going on in the news. Today he was asking some questions about the healthcare plan and this is how I explained it to him. I told him that at school each day, if he wants an ice cream, he knows he has to bring his money from home in order to get one. Well, what if one day he didn't bring his money, and the cafeteria lady let him have an ice cream anyway. I asked him if he knew she was going to give him an ice cream, would he even bother bringing his money, or would he just let her keep giving him one everyday?
That is how the government handouts work. Who wants to work hard to pay their own way, when they can get "free ice cream" in the form of unemployment checks, food stamps (Lone Star Card) WIC, housing aid, and now even a free cell phone?
I have seen it first hand over and over again - my brother won't work because he "makes about as much" claiming a disability and drawing a check each month. The real kicker to that is, he is still eligible to work 2 days a week at his old job while drawing disability!!! Hello, if he is well enough to work 2 days a week, why pay him as though he is disabled?
My mother is on housing and draws social security and has a small retirement check each month. She is bored to tears sitting at home all day, so I suggested she go find a part-time job to occupy her time. She refuses to do so, because she would lose the $300/month she receives in housing aid. I told her she would make that $300, probably more, if she were working anyway. Her response, "Why would I do that? I wouldn't come out ahead any?"
These are only two examples, but as I said, I have seen this time and time again. I am not against helping others in need. But, this entitlement program really does nothing to promote working hard to get ahead! "Why work hard when the government will give it to me for free?"
I heard a speech from Obama yesterday where he was bragging that since he took office, the amound of money the goverment issues for Pell grants has more than doubled! I don't understand his mentality. Somebody needs to show him that money does not grow on trees, and that all of these "great programs" are going to have to be paid for with real money! And someday, mark my work, China is going to stop loaning us money!!
8:35: What error was made in 'NancyPelosiIsMyHero!'? The lack of spacing is intentional. The font used does not make a lower case 'l' and an uppercase "I" look different.
HEAVEN HELP US ALL!
Isolated inbred Wise Co folks, the country will be endorsing the improvements to health care by November. The over simplistic Wordkyle says the Democrats only want to give away $$ to the unworthy while ignoring the Republican's only consistent platform plank - tax breaks for the rich. The electorate may be more sophisticated than poor ole wordy realizes.
837 - Well, you're wrong about me and you're wrong on the issues. Luckily, though, your post did provide one benefit -- it gave me an excuse to list, courtesy of www.gop.com:
WHAT REPUBLICANS BELIEVE
* We're fortunate to live in America
* You can be what you are, and become what you are capable of becoming
* Helping those around you is worthwhile
* Small government is a better government for the people
* You know what to do with your money better than government
* Free markets keep people free
* Our Armed Forces defend and protect our democracy
Thanks, 8:37. That inspiring message is all because of you.
8:37,
Yeah, like voting a Pub into Teddy K's old seat.
Riiiiiight.
Mmmm...isolated inbred Wise County folks understand someone is going to pay for healthcare. The 32 million to be covered by taking $500 billion from Medicare beneficiaries is redistribution of wealth. By November, a lot of people will still understand our country is going bankrupt when government passes out goodies to some while killing off the old! Voters still love Grandma in Wise County.
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