11.04.2020

Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts


  • I've got hot sports opinions about last night but, as the hardest working man in show business, let's get you up to date . . . 
  • Here's what we know at 8:32 a.m. 
    • It appears the presidential race is down to three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those votes are still being counted. 
    • For Biden to win, he needs two of the three. 
    • If you went to bed thinking Trump won all three of them, I've got some news for you.  Trump's leads in two of three are now gone. 
    • At this moment . . . 
      • Michigan: With 90% of the vote in, it just moved to Biden 20 minutes ago. He leads by 11,946 votes. This is the state to watch this morning.   Its Secretary of State said an hour ago that we will know Michigan's results today. 
      • Wisconsin: 97% is in and Biden is leading by 20,697. It's been trending towards Biden all night.
      • Pennsylvania: Only 75% is in and Trump is leading by 618,840. The counting is slow. From here on out, the absentee ballots (1.4 million of them to be counted!) will cut into that lead. We won't know the results until Friday. Despite Trump's lead, it could end up being a toss-up right now. And the state might end up not mattering at all. 
  • Those links will give you updated information.  This is all so insane. And who knew the Big 10 would decide it all?  
  • What do I comfortably think?: Joe Biden is the next President of the United States of America. 
  • Why has Biden gained in those three states since you went to bed? This is important: In-person votes were counted first in those states (which leaned towards Trump) and the absentee ballots are being counted now (leans towards Biden.) Understand that the exact opposite occurred in North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia last evening where absentee ballots were counted first. Biden jumped out to an early lead and then Trump kept eating into those leads and came in for the win later when in-person votes were counted. 
  • Trump knew in the middle of the night that trouble was brewing. What he did what was predicted: 

  • Man, Trump got mad when Fox News was the first network to call Arizona for Biden last night. (Other than the AP, no other news organization has gone that far even this morning, but it looks to be safely Biden's.) Arizona, in the end, might end up being the biggest blow to Trump's re-election campaign. He probably wants to rethink that John McCain bashing right about now. 
  • There are two wild cards out there: Georgia and Nevada. Especially Georgia. 
    • In Georgia, it looked like Trump was going to win it (and he still is winning it) with 92% of the vote in.  But all during the night, Trump's lead has been shrinking. It's now down to 103,760. And based upon where the outstanding ballots are from, the New York Times thinks Biden will catch Trump. Make no mistake, Georgia is a toss up right now. If Biden wins Georgia, he only needs one of the states of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania. 

    • On the other hand, everyone assumed from the start that Nevada would go to Biden. It's a heck of a lot closer than everyone thought. The only thing left are mail-in ballots. 

  • Quick thoughts even if Biden wins:
    • I thought if Trump lost that the Republican Party would distance themselves from him like nobody's business. It's just the opposite. He's the new Reagan. A crazy version of Reagan, but the new Reagan nevertheless. 
    • If you were a Republican Senator or Representative who embraced Trump, you did exactly the right thing. You won re-election. The Republicans held onto the Senate and picked up a couple of seats in the House. 
    • I'm stunned the Trump did as well as he did. There is a serious, serious divide in this country. I knew it was bad, but it's worse than I thought. 
  • Wise County: You boys didn't disappoint. Trump won by 83.92%. Last time is was 83.84%.  The consistency is amazing. 
  • I was right about Texas not turning Blue. I predicted Trump 51% to 47%.  

  • I was absolutely wrong about Democrats taking the Texas House in the legislature. 
  • One of the most confounding things is that Texas Hispanics didn't overwhelming vote for Biden. It's jaw-dropping, and this is a major political story. Look at Starr County where Hillary won by 60% in 2016:  

  • I was expecting Tarrant County to turn Blue but that didn't happen.  All the down ballot Republicans won 53% to 47% so all their judges are safe.  But look at the presidential race: 

  • Races I was watching:
    • Colin Allred won.

    • Jeff Leach, my nemesis, won.

    • In the "clock boy" race:

    • I forgot to mention Wendy Davis yesterday. 

  • Oh, yeah: Texas hospitalizations: +166. Contrary to Facebook, it ain't going away because of today's date.