I think I'm pretty good about judging public opinion. But maybe I'm not.
Take for example the movie Stealth which debuted this weekend. It's not exactly something I'm going to go see, but I would expect that the public would eat it up. It's big budget (cost over $100 million), it has a ton of special effects, it stars academy award winning Jamie Foxx, and has a huge advertising budget.
So what does it do on opening weekend? It finishes fourth with an intake of $13.5 million. That has "bomb" written all over it.