The Campaign For DA

11.06.2015

Random Friday Morning Thoughts




  • That was a heck of hail storm. How may times can Wise County cars get beaten up? 
  • I'm suspending the "Name That Location" contest for today's RTG pic. 
  • The most awkward/funny moment of my life occurred last night. The Senior In The House had her last band performance and was part of "Senior Night" at the football game where the Seniors were  honored before the game. After walking down the field, Mrs. LL was handed a long stemmed carnation as part of the ceremony. Once it was over, she had to go to the bathroom, and the Senior In The House was going with her because she had to change into a different band uniform as, which I will soon learn, all band members had to do as well. Mrs. LL hands me the carnation to protect* it. I decided to go to the bathroom as well, walked in carrying the carnation (I'm wearing a suit, by the way), and see about 10 half naked (or more) male band members who are also changing clothes. They stop and look up as I walk in. Let me remind you I'm wearing a suit and carrying a carnation. The only thing I could say is, "What's up, guys?"
  • Sports: (1) I was right about my assertion that Baylor's backup quarterback was better than the starter who is out for a year with an injury, (2) K-States Bill Synder is a genius. If you have no offense, the only way to even try to beat Baylor is to run the ball and run the clock. (3) Prediction: TCU loses at OSU tomorrow, (4) Mark Cuban just agreed to pay coach Rick Carlisle $35 million with a contract extension. The Smartest Man In The Room doesn't realize that, without players, a coach can't save you. 
  • I wonder if crazy Dallas DA Susan Hawk and the crazy advertising Law Hawk guy are related.
  • A friend of mine saw me shaking my head as he walked up the stairs at the courthouse yesterday. He asked me why. The answer? There was a spare-out-of-town lawyer telling his client and (his very concerned wife) there was a plea bargain offer on the table. The defendant asked what the other options he had, and the lawyer said he could set if for trial but the offer would be withdrawn. That's a bold face lie or bold face ignorance of how the third floor of the courthouse works. I believe he said it so he wouldn't have to make another trip to Wise County. And I would bet he's never tried a case in front of a jury in his life.
  • Too many cops. Too many prosecutors. Too many lawyers. 
  • They have opened up a golf course at Petco Field (that's the baseball home of the San Diego Padres) and advertise it with a "Hey, now.") That's right out of Something About Mary
  • Unemployment rate was just announced: It fell to 5.0%. (Wordkyle in 3, 2, ....)
  • I just thought about this. What does long time faithful reader Wordkyle think about Donald Trump?
  • There is a strange phenomena of people committing suicide by jumping off a cruise ship. I actually had conversation with someone in the last two months as to why. Another one happened this week. 
  • My "Football Will Be Gone" prediction is crazy? News: "A 9-year-old boy in Ohio died shortly after participating in a youth football practice."

_________________
* I may need to pay someone to create a political and cheezy youtube ad of "I'm A Protector Of Flowers". But what do I know about politics? 

69 comments:

Anonymous said...

On behalf of Wordkyle....Labor force participation is lowest since 1978. Almost 95 million people out of the labor force.

Nice job on the RTG.

Anonymous said...

Frankly, BG, if you can't come back to us the following day with the actual location of the preceding day's RTG location, you probably ought to kill "the contest" - does nothing but increase the number of inane comments we have to scroll through.

Anonymous said...

...too many criminals. Complaining about the number of cops and prosecutors is like having rain pouring through a bunch of holes in your roof, but yet you walk around the house being pissed off at all the buckets on the floor.

Anonymous said...

On behalf of Wordkyle, leaping off a cruise ship is a tortuous way to commit suicide.

Anonymous said...

News: 50 kids died yesterday after accidents caused by texting while driving. Are we predicting the end of cars and phones?

Anonymous said...

The number of people out of the labor force included infants and 90-year olds. Geez, way to completely misuse a stat.

wordkyle said...

As has become well-known by now, because of the historically-low Labor Force Participation Rate the last seven years, 5% unemployment in 2015 is not the same as 5% unemployment in 2005. Tens of millions more unemployed people are no longer counted in the numbers. Because of the quirk of how "official" unemployment is calculated, Obama has avoided the political fallout of double-digit unemployment. He and the Democrat party seem to benefit most when Americans give up hope and quit trying.

Anonymous said...

Wordkyle, don't comment. Let your supporters help out.

Barry, why do you have so much trouble with facts? The unemployment rate is only down because of people leaving the workforce. They can't find work and it is too easy to stay home with all of the programs available to them. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OBUMMER!!

Anonymous said...

Football will not go away. But it will be played in disproportionate numbers by the poor students who have no other options. If Dad's a lawyer and mom's a doctor, and the kid has every advantage in the world, the hell would they let him play football?

wordkyle said...

858 - Are you sure you don't mean torturous?

Mr. Mike Honcho said...

I can't keep up on this blog... is Football awesome because of the NCAA or is it terrible because people hit each other on the field?

Anonymous said...

During last night's game, Art Briles looked like a liquored up Harry Dean Stanton.

Anonymous said...

The most skewed statistic in history is that our unemployment is 5%. The criteria for such a ridiculous lie must be made by an idiot.

SpanishWarDonkey said...

Yes.

Anonymous said...

I'm one of those millions out of the workforce. I'm happily retired getting rich on investments in the booming stock market. Also my 3 year old grandson hasn't looked for work recently.
How stupid must you be to use that 95 million out of the workforce number?

Anonymous said...

How stupid....5 percent of our population just came across our borders and haven't had time to find a job.

Anonymous said...

9:00 -

I'll assume you're the same guy who threw out this "stat" yesterday. So, again, *citation needed.

Anonymous said...

Hey now, George H W Bush must not be too senile. In a new book he recognizes how much Cheney and Rumsfeld screwed up poor George W's presidency. So much for history being kind to GW.

Anonymous said...

My mom is 64, and retired on disability due to multiple strokes. Pretty sure she's "out of the workforce." Should she count toward unemployment numbers?

Similarly, my deadbeat 8-year-old son isn't looking for a job, either, despite my threats to break his plate. Should he count?

Anonymous said...

UfreakinT beat K State as bad. I'd tap the breaks on the new Baylor QB until he plays somebody.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, but Baylor will not enhance its ratings with that "blowout" at Kansas State. Things are getting dicey for TCU and BU now. OU may emerge as champs after all.

wordkyle said...

921 et al - The numbers involved are the "Civilian Noninstitutional Population" aged 16 and older, so your grandson (and 929's unfortunate offspring) can rest easy in not being referenced.

The most recent official number of working-aged Americans considered "not in the workforce" is 94,513,000. Not quite ninety-five million, but in the ballpark.

As has been pointed out over and over again in this forum, the majority of those who have left the workforce were not retirees, but those age 25-54.

How stupid must you be to ignore those numbers?

Anonymous said...

Wordy, Wordy, do the math. If 95 million out of work out of 320 million total population that is 30% unemployed. If you take the under 16 year olds out of the 320 million, the unemployed must be over 40% (rough numbers). Now that's just plain stupid. I'm guessing you're in the employed/unemployable number as well. Right?

Anonymous said...

Consider a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued in November 2006, more than two years before Obama took office and before the start of the Great Recession. It pegged the start of the decline in participation rates at around 2000, and projected the decline would continue for the next four decades.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2006: Every year after 2000, the rate declined gradually, from 66.8 percent in 2001 to 66.0 percent in 2004 and 2005. According to the BLS projections, the overall participation rate will continue its gradual decrease each decade and reach 60.4 percent in 2050.

Anonymous said...

Among the reasons cited for the trend:

1) The aging of baby boomers. A lower percentage of older Americans choose to work than those who are middle-aged. And so as baby boomers approach retirement age, it lowers the labor force participation rate.

2) A decline in working women. The labor force participation rate for men has been declining since the 1950s. But for a couple decades, a rapid rise in working women more than offset that dip. Women’s labor force participation exploded from nearly 34 percent in 1950 to its peak of 60 percent in 1999. But since then, women’s participation rate has been “displaying a pattern of slow decline.”

3) More young people are going to college. As BLS noted, “Because students are less likely to participate in the labor force, increases in school attendance at the secondary and college levels and, especially, increases in school attendance during the summer, significantly reduce the labor force participation rate of youths.”

Anonymous said...

But I want to work! Why won't anyone let me work? I have bonafides as former Texas head honcho. Can't you folks give me a chance to be PRESIDENT!?!

DF Rick "stop that probing" Perry

wordkyle said...

950 - Try to follow:

The government's official employment numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They ignore children under the age of 16. The resulting group is called "Civilian Noninstitutional Population," (and also are not inmates of institutions (penal, mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.) That number in October, according to the BLS, was 251,471,000.

The number I provided above, 94,513,000, I think I accurately described as "not in the workforce." None of those is officially counted as "unemployed." That number, as a percentage of the total adult workforce, is the highest it's been since 1977. The lemmings-over-the-cliff decline the last seven years is, as I pointed out, not the result of more older Americans retiring, but of prime-of-their-life people giving up.

Now then. Do you think your relatively uninformed opinion lived up to your arrogant tone?

Anonymous said...

We have this discussion every month, but the numbers just don't make sense to me. So 95 million Americans are not working, but also wanting to work? Per the US Census, 23% of the population is under 18, and another 14% is 65+, and the total population is about 319M. Source:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

So, unless my math is wrong, there are about 201M people who are over 17 and under 65. (I'll grant that this ignores 16- and 17-year-olds). So the 95M people "out of the workforce" number means that roughly one out of two people in the country aren't working, but want to?

Look, I don't think 5% is an accurate representation. But I also don't think that half of the country (or even 40%, or whatever ludicrously high number anyone wants to manufacture) is out of a job, wants one really badly, but couldn't find one so they just gave up. I know a lot of soccer moms that don't work, but there's no way in hell they're looking for a job.

Also, how would that work, exactly? I try really hard for 9 months to get a job, can't find one, so I just quit looking and sit home, but somehow magically continue to pay my bills? Government assistance, despite assertions to the contrary, generally is only available for a limited time period, absent other factors.

Anonymous said...

OU beat them 55-0. Yeah, Baylor is a playoff team with that D

Anonymous said...

Yes, thank you for the correction.

Anonymous said...

Mike Honcho, that's just the duality of man. Now why don't you jump on the team and come in for the big win?

DF Pogue Colonel

Anonymous said...

Winner.

Anonymous said...

When idiot liberal weenies try to defend Obammy's unemployment numbers, I wish they would also prove to us how their health insurance premiums have gone down $2500 and they got to keep their doctor and how the polar ice caps increasing in size was caused by global warmism.

Anonymous said...

BG- I'll agree that Cubes is arrogant, but I think if you want to maintain your Sports Genius crown I would refrain from commenting on the NBA.

All this unemployment/labor force participation talk in the comments is interesting. I would offer up to the "historically low" aspect has to account for one of the largest class of retirees from the baby boomers are currently exiting the workforce because, as another commentor points out, their investments are actually doing well. But the stock market never reacts to a political party...

-Texan stranded in LA

Anonymous said...

Surprise, surprise. Obammy rejects the pipeline. He wants us to keep buying our oil from his Mooslum brothers.

wordkyle said...

957 - The 2006 report you cited had these projections for the LFPR:

2010 - 65.9%
2020 - 64.5%
2030 - 61.7%
2040 - 60.8%
2050 - 60.4%

The LFPR for last month was 62.4%, so it must be the year 2028.

That rate in real life declined 1.5 points in eight years, from January 2001 to December 2008. From January 2009 to last month, less than six years, it declined 3.3 points. That's more than double the rate.

Incidentally, for all those "baby boomers retiring is responsible" folks - the participation rate for Americans 65 and older has actually gone up the last several years. More folks are choosing (or are forced) to work until a later age.

Anonymous said...

10:10

Nice analysis; well said

Anonymous said...

Wordy claims some version of the "not working" number is greater than any time since 1977 (which was a time of great unemployment and very high interest rates). However, he must recognize that the total population of the U.S. has grown by about 100 million since then. Some raw numbers are much larger but the percentage can be much smaller.

There are certainly some out of work and some underemployed. But check out economic activity, look at building - commercial, residential and industrial then check the activity on our highways. Lots of people are doing just dandy in this economy.

Anonymous said...

I dont care about unemployment numbers, or insurance prices. Never have. I took my schooling seriously, because my parents told me to. I got a scolarship to a good college, because my family was too poor to afford it. I got a good job because I worked hard for it, and they provide me with insurance. People who sit around pissing and moaning about it should use that time to focus on what they can do to teach the younger generation about these core values so that they won't end up being in the same situation.

Anonymous said...

More hail is good for Wise County. Those out of work oil field workers can try out for roofing jobs. Naw, that might require actual skill.

Anonymous said...

Why look for a job, when you can sit at home suckling the govenment teet?

DF 5 percenter

Anonymous said...

If Wordy's #'s were 100% true, then we would be in worse shape than the Great Depression. The real unemployment rate is somewhere around 10%. Their is some truth in what he is saying but 10:10 is far more right. Yes, some people have given up, but those people are most likely unwilling to take jobs they see as beneath them or they have other contributing factors that make them undesirable. Like maybe just scribbling ghost writer repeatedly on a napkin and submitting that as a resume.

Point is, common sense tells us that 95 million people just didn't give up. That is a false narrative driven by a doomsday prophet.

For what it's worth, I do think Obamacare is garbage and global warming is over hyped political nonsense based on far too little data. A 60-70 year blip of data on a planet billions of years old is a droplet of water in the ocean. It don't mean shit.

Anonymous said...

11:05 We are importing less "mooslum" oil than we have in 50 years. Not that facts have anything to do with the comments on here, but still...

Anonymous said...

Wordy at 11:09, a lot of baby boomers made poor life decisions and had to go back to work. Others lost a big chunk of their nest egg during Dubya's reign. I don't think Obama is any better, and some of Bushies failings were inherited, but there are reasons beyond one Presidency that factor into these #'s.

Armchair Economist

Anonymous said...

11:32, Oh no, I cannot handle the "Rooftop Trash" decals popping up on on the pickups!

Anonymous said...

I'm no brain surgeon, but I'm pretty sure I know better than to run for political office and lie about things that are easily verifiable.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598

Anonymous said...

You folks and all your fancy number talk is confusing the heck out of me. I'm pretty good at cyphering with my fingers and toes. When I try to use that extra "private part" to count to 21, Granny swats me & tells me not to do that in public. When I ask Ellie Mae, my cousin, to help me with my cyphering, she laughs and tell me her boyfriend taught her about long division and she can show me how many times one can go into something. I don't understand that, but she says we can't practice it until Uncle Jed and Granny aren't around.

So you guys stop all that complicated cyphering talk. My head hurts.

DF Jethro Bodine
naught plus naught, carry the naught....

Anonymous said...

I'm not a Carson fan, 12:51. But if that's his biggest "lie," he's probably the most honest candidate running.

Anonymous said...

I actually agree with Obama on Keystone. We don't need a pipeline for cheap beer! Think of all of the jobs you will lose because all the drivers delivering those thirty packs will be let go along with the beer plant jobs shipped to Canada.

We also need to think about the college and high school kids who could tap right into that pipeline and have beer on demand all day. We would see a huge drop in productivity. Plus, Keystone is an American brand, we don't won't those pesky Canadians tinkering around with their (XL) version of it. Next thing you know it 'ill be maple or moose flavored!

Sheriff Bud Boomer

Anonymous said...

Cruise ships should be banned.

Anonymous said...

11:51, That's exactly the reason he killed the pipeline.

Anonymous said...

12:51 I agree Hillary is such a damn liar

Anonymous said...

I see the Wordy stalker is on a roll today

Anonymous said...

378,000 new jobs went to those 55 and older.
Thanks ObamašŸ˜”
DF Not Retiring Anytime Soon

wordkyle said...

Well, kids, you've made a lot of comments, but nothing that disputes my point that the unemployment numbers under Obama are not near as rosy as our host would have us believe. Obama has escaped the consequences a president usually suffers for high unemployment.

1151 - My numbers ARE 100% true. Pay attention to what I've said vs what you think I've said. And it's not just me that has pointed out that the drop in the workforce is not primarily boomers retiring.

Anonymous said...

12:51- Hillary lied and four Americans died. Truth is not a value to the left.

Mr. Mike Honcho said...

Col 10:19, you sir win the internets today. Partly because of your awesome comment but mostly because you didn't jump into the boring workforce participation troll job and ensuing debate.

Anonymous said...

9:21 - if you had been a better father, your daughter wouldn't be having out of wedlock children with black guys.

Anonymous said...

Mike Mitchell resigned from the TC DA's office?

They are so thin on experience that it's scary. Great job, new DA!

Anonymous said...

4:53, My daughter is black so what's your point?

Anonymous said...

You realize politico retracted that story and all but admitted they were trying to take a snipers scope to Carson. He made a comment about a high school incident and they created a narrative that he never said.

Anonymous said...

3:30 So, let me get this straight Wordy, you stand behind your assertion that 95 million people just quit looking for work because of Obama?

wordkyle said...

954 - I did not make that assertion. As I said, consider what I actually said versus what you think I said.

What I did say was that a larger percentage of Americans are considered not in the workforce than any time since 1977. I also pointed out that group has increased in size dramatically (NOT gradually) in the last seven years. Also, the information from the BLS indicates that dramatic increase is due primarily to Americans age 25-54 leaving the workforce, NOT because of a sudden increase in Baby Boomers retiring. Those prime-of-their-life people were eliminated from the workforce because they didn't find work and didn't file for unemployment. I believe that policies under the Obama administration exacerbated the severity and extended the length of American unemployment And because of how unemployment is calculated, the "official" unemployment rate under Obama has been artificially low, protecting him from the political fallout.

Now, what was it you said I said?

Anonymous said...

So, then what is your point Wordy? You give us these #'s for a reason. Are we supposed to conclude for you that Obama is the reason 95 million quit looking for work? That way you can make a point with your minions while washing your hands of it. Your spinning just as hard as the Dems.

I agree that the #'s are off and Obama is being protected because of it, but your analysis of the numbers is just asinine. You expect anyone to believe that those "prime-of-their-life people" just up and quit their jobs and decided to do nothing and are magically paying their bills with no income? If Obama's policies were responsible we would see a larger portion of these people applying for unemployment because of losing their job in a bad economy. The economy has remained steady during this so that further debunks your doomsday analysis.

The more likely explanation is the increase in entrepreneurship, with people in that age bracket investing in themselves and leaving unsatisfying corporate jobs. Jobs that they likely held onto for the group insurance. Now that they have affordable healthcare elsewhere they have the freedom to take the risk. I'm not saying Obamacare is good for the economy, but it is changing the landscape of the economy, and so far the sky isn't falling!

Now, what was it you said I said you said?

wordkyle said...

Dear Pilgrim,

First, your mythical entrepreneur class would still be considered in the workforce, not as having left it. Regardless, your point would still be wrong, as entrepreneurial activity started a five year decline in 2010, and is "still below historic norms" according to the Kauffman Index.

Second, your incidental mention of "affordable healthcare" might as well refer to unicorns. Some few people got free insurance -- NOT "healthcare" -- while many, many others saw their premiums skyrocket. (Including people who didn't have an insurance premium at all, before Democrats forced them to get one.)

Third, you are simply being silly with your "just up and quit their jobs" reference. If that's your take, then you really shouldn't be discussing unemployment at all.

As for my point -- for the last few years, the first Friday of every month, our host posts a bullet touting good news about the unemployment rate. (I suspect he does it ironically, but with a Liberal you can't always tell.) In response, I have made my points listed above.

If you want more evidence, google "given up looking for work" and see how many hits you get. You might even try reading some of the articles.

Anonymous said...

Wordy, you WOULD have to up and quit your job not to be eligible for unemployment. People that get fired typically file unemployment.

The Kaufman Index for 2015, which you conveniently ignored, tells a different tale. Entrepreneurship was on a decline for the years you say, but not in the large metro areas and not in the Demographics we were discussing. Also in 2015 we have seen the biggest increase in over 2 decades. The economy is doing what? Pardner', your hands must be stained from all the cherry picking you been doing.

Have you ever signed up personally for Obamacare? I was out of work for a few months this year and in between jobs I did. It was very affordable, about the same as my group policy ($400/family of 3). I guess I could have just paid the Cobra premiums of $1800 a month, as I'm sure that is what you would have done, but I chose to feed my family instead. Also, I was astounded by the sheer # of job postings and the quality of those jobs. I got to do a little cherry picking of my own. I felt bad for not job shopping sooner.

If you have given up looking for work and took to writing about it on the Internet I don't want to read your sob stories. Pathetic people too lazy to find work are of no interest to me. Especially those that just through up their hands because.....Obama.

Did you actually picture yourself as John Wayne when you called me "Pilgrim"? I got to tell you, life ain't no movie Hoss!

wordkyle said...

1146 - No, I called you "pilgrim" as in a person who wanders around lost and befuddled.

Once again, your comments reflect your ignorance of the unemployment situation in the United States. Answering the plethora of foolish statements you've made is a waste of bandwidth, so I'll only address one, your "you WOULD have to up and quit your job not to be eligible for unemployment" comment. "Discouraged workers" are those who couldn't find work, ran out of unemployment benefits and have quit looking. They are a large part of the unemployed Americans no longer counted as unemployed. A lot has been written on the subject, so you might break your normal pattern and inform yourself on it.

Any interested readers can determine (or have already determined) whether they want to consider anything you have to say or not.

Anonymous said...

Brother, if you hadn't found work in this economy, you ain't lookin'! You can buy into their BS, but these folks were just fat that needed to be trimmed, milked their unemployment and cried "Obama, Obama" on the interwebs when that well ran dry. No different than the ticks lining up for in ghetto milking it for years, these folks just have a lighter tan so you choose to give them credence.

These people are where they are at because of poor life choices and welfare envy!!! They think the world owes them something...sad to see you support that. I thought you stood for personal responsibility but I guess that's out the window when it doesn't fit your political narrative. You are a pathetic spin doctor and terrible liar! See ya, "Duke"!

Anonymous said...

Yes, indeed, the truth is, our American economy is booming! Why, just look at all the happy faces on "Dancing With The Stars"! Isn't that proof enough?

So what if you have a doctorate in Physics and you end up working as a greeter at Walmart? Sounds like a personal problem to me.

And Obamacare? It's the greatest thing since Al Gore invented the internet. Plus, it's dirt cheap when you consider the cost of a sex change operation these days.

Complain all you want but most of us know those 95 million are just lazy people who have made poor life choices. They don't deserve the sweat off my sack and besides they're probably drug addicts posing as Christians.

Can I be any clearer?