Random Tuesday Morning Thoughts

I took this photo on Main Street in Decatur.

  • Warning: Election heavy is what follows.
  • Texas election prediction: I think it's a boring night with Abbott, Patrick and even Paxton cruising to easy victories.  I bet all three of those races are all called by 8:30 p.m. 
  • Nationally, the House is guaranteed to go to the Republicans. It happens every mid-term for the party which doesn't hold the presidency.  The impact: We know for certain that the next two years there will be no major legislation passed because the Republican House won't do it. And if they do want it, President Biden would veto it (assuming they could get it pass the Senate.)
  • The Senate is where all the action is tonight and is what you should watch. Why? The Senate controls the approval of federal judges that Biden nominates. As you know, it's currently split 50/50 with the Democrats having control because the VP has the tie breaker. 
    • So how to watch? There are 34 Senate races tonight but all but five of them are foregone conclusions.  And of those five, only three seem to be still a toss up. 
    • Below are 538.com's current predictions and confidence level based upon tallying and weighing all available polling data for the five races.  I love that site, and I think it's deadly accurate. I've circled the current prediction certainty for 538.com. If the number is in red, they think it will go to the Republican (whose name is also in red.) So, for example, they have Dr. Oz predicted to win but they are only 57% sure of their prediction.  That's not very certain at all, but that's where I'd place my bet. 
      Circle on the left designates which party currently
      controls that seat.

    • That chart is very good for Republicans. If the predictions hold true, the Senate goes from 50-50 to 48-52 in favor of the GOP.  Overall, 538.com puts it at a 59% chance that Republicans walk away controlling the Senate. It's really about NV, PA and GA.
    • Republican's are even getting excited about the New Hampshire senate race all of a sudden. But 538.com thinks the Democrat will win it and they have a confidence rate of 72% which is relatively high.  But that will be the very first result we see tonight. Watch for it. If it goes red, 538 has completely blown it, and the Democrats are in even bigger trouble. But 538 never blows it. 
    • I'm surprised that Herschel Walker is predicted by them  to win Georgia although they are only 63% comfortable with that prediction. Still, that's still really good. Warning: Georgia might end up in a runoff which means we'll have to wait for another election next month if it all comes down to that state. The reason for that is that the state requires the winner to get more than 50% of the vote even in the general election. Because there is a Libertarian in the race, he might suck off 3%-4% causing the runoff between Walker and Warnock. 
  • Most consequential "local" vote tonight: Whether Tim O'Hare wins as Tarrant County Judge. He'll turn that county upside down. He's a nut and most famous for almost bankrupting Farmer's Branch for trying to ban illegal immigrants when he was mayor. Despite all this talk of Tarrant turning Blue, I think he wins tonight. 

  • Weirdest race: A race for district judge in Dallas where there is no candidate on the ballot. They only way you win is by having a voter accurately write your name in. How wild is this: "Voters will be asked to type a name instead of selecting an option in that race. While no candidates appear on the actual ballot in the race, a printed paper inside every voting booth lists declared write-in candidates without identifying their political parties." How many votes do you think it will take to win it? I have no idea. 

  • Ted Cruz was hit by a beer can while appearing in the Houston Astros victory parade. Don't do that. And I'm talking to the beer thrower, not Cruz. Video.

    • The guy was arrested for Aggravated Assault.  Why? There will be an allegation that the beer can was a "deadly weapon" which has a stupid definition under Texas law in that it is "anything that in the manner of its use or intended use is capable of causing . . . serious bodily injury." So, you know, the beer can could have put an eye out. It'll probably end up as a misdemeanor probation. 
  • Don't do this either. He makes (or made) $650,000 a year in "base salary."

  • Trump called Nancy Pelosi "an animal" last night.  He continues his brazen path towards Hitler because he knows that he is dehumanizing her. And by dehumanizing her, it only makes it easier for the ultra-MAGA to commit more violence. 

  • Amber Guyger actually appealed her case to the United States Supreme Court, but they declined to hear it yesterday. Legal nerdy stuff: Her is her cert petition. I'm not sure I understand it -- in fact, I know I don't. But I do know it stood absolutely no chance of being granted. She is eligible for parole in 2024.

  • If you want a wild ride, watch God Forbid: The Sex Scandal That Brought Down a Dynasty about Jerry Fallwell Jr., his wife, Liberty University, and the pool boy. Oh, my.
  • Rejoice. Today is the last day of political ads.