Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts

A faithful reader sent me this after seeing it along a Wise County road.

  • I can't believe Chief Justice Roberts confirmed the authenticity of the draft opinion.

  • So who leaked it? There are two theories out there.
    • A Dirty Lib did it: Someone inside the court is so mad that Roe is going to be overruled he or she threw a Hail Mary and released the draft opinion in hopes that the public outcry will be enough to back some of the judges off. Ted Cruz said this was the obvious answer yesterday and, when asked how he knew this he said, "Because I’m not a moron; because I live on planet Earth.” I'm not sure about either one of those assertions, but this theory makes sense. It is the Occam's razor answer. 

    • A Hardline Right Winger did it: One of the judges in the five vote majority to overrule Roe is slipping away so a Roe hater had the draft released to put pressure on him to get back in the fold. Let's explore this theory.

      • Let's assume for the sake of argument that Kavanaugh has decided to do the following: Let the Mississippi 15 week abortion ban law stand but not overrule Roe. He instead just wants to say it is a reasonable restriction under Casey. If that happened, you would end up with a "plurality opinion" where the strict Mississippi abortion law stands but the vote would be 4-2-3. Four to let the law stand because Roe should overruled, two (Kavanaugh and Roberts) in a concurrence to let the law stand because the restriction is constitutional under Roe and Casey, and three dissenting. 
      • That's still a win for the far right wing conservatives, but it's not the Holy Grail of having Roe overturned.  That's a big deal.  This is the best, and maybe final chance, to kill Roe. This is what they've been waiting for for decades. And now if they see that Kavanaugh is slipping away, they will want to stop him and bring him back.
      • So what if you are Kavanaugh right now? You were very close to leaving the majority and vote with Roberts in a concurrence. But now, if you do that, all your right wing buddies at the Federalist Society who got you on the Court will know that you are the only reason that Roe still lives. You will be that guy. 
      • Would the pressure work? Heck, he's a man who cried about drinking beer during his confirmation hearing so maybe he can be swayed. You think he wants to be the lone moderate wolf of courage here?  That would be why those trying to manipulate him released the draft. 
      • This ain't a bad theory. 
  • She might end up being right again. 9/5/18:

  • Preach on. 

  • So where does America stand on abortion? I think that most would love a fantasy land where no one ever thinks they need one, but we all agree that world doesn't exist. So I think most Americans  wants the option available so long as there are reasonable restrictions placed upon it. You don't like "abortion on demand" but you also don't like the sound of "Roe is overruled."  You kind of want something in the middle which, actually, is kind of what we have now under Roe and Casey. That leaves us with the current legitimate arguments over whether a Mississippi 15 week ban, or a Texas 6 week ban, is too great of a restriction.  It's hard, isn't it? That's where Kavanaugh (or maybe Amy Coney Barrett) might be.

  • I'll say it again: If Roe is overruled, Texas law will automatically become the strictest in the nation making a abortion a crime from the moment of conception. There is no exception for rape or incest. Those you have elected have already voted for that. 
    • But all of those in Texas who voted to make the state the strictest in the land were quiet yesterday after the news of the draft opinion leak. This was in stark contrast to the scene when the law was signed:

  • Back to simpler things.  Decatur completed a massive comeback in early voting and trounced Bridgeport. Heck, Boyd almost snuck into second place with a strong final two days. Watching all of this was kind of fun. 

  • David Chappelle was attacked last night. And there's video.

  • Candidates in Tarrant County for County Judge and District Attorney are trying to cash in on CRT straw man scare tactics. And are doing so in Dallas at a country club (get the irony there?) and in an event hosted by a Burleson based PAC.

  • The official prosecutors association in Texas had a great Twitter thread yesterday summarizing the latest criminal data released by Texas courts.  Here are two that jumped out at me:
    • I think this is amazing. The number of misdemeanor cases actually filed in court has plummeted now for several years.  And felony cases have a slight rise but are pretty flat overall. 

    • The other thing is that filed traffic offenses have plummeted over recent years. I'm guessing that there are simply less total traffic stops in general (which would correspond to the drop in jailable misdemeanor cases, above, since DWI and almost all drug cases originate from traffic stops.)

  • Oh, man. I only knew here through the meme

  • Whoever was running the board in Colorado last night might be going through a personal thing. 

  • Messenger: Above the Fold