The Campaign For DA

3.04.2020

Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts



  • Every Texas political junkie last night was saying this at 10:00 p.m.: "How in the year of our dear Lord 2020 does it take this long to get election results?" (Wise County, in contrast, had them almost before you got home.)
  • I, for one, will always miss the day where Wise County Clerk Sherry Parker on election night would come out to the lobby of the clerk's office every 30 minutes and write the most recent results on a white board. And we'd get to hear things like, "The boxes from Cottondale and Newark still aren't here yet." 
  • After trailing for most of the night in Texas, Biden finally beat Sanders. That was very reminiscent of how Beto led Cruz for most of the night until the more rural counties, and the more "conservative" voters, were all counted. 
  • But don't think for a minute this was a massive win for Biden in Texas. Because Texas allocates the delegates - it's not a winner take all state - Biden will end up with a handful of more Texas delegates than Sanders. (We don't know the exact delegate allocation yet because we have to see if Bloomberg cracks 15% which would change the way the delegates are divvied up.) 
  • Congratulations to Kay Granger for defeating Chris Putnam who was supported by millions of dollars in SuperPAC money and, oddly, the Wise County Sheriff. Granger carried Wise County, as well.
  • In the vote to replace Wise County's other House representative, ex-White House physician Ronny Jackson (21%) is headed to a runoff against Josh Winegarner (41%), an ex-Phil Gramm/John Cornyn staffer. Bridgeport's own Elaine Hayes had 7.67%. 
    You know Trump knows nothing about you when he gives you the boilerplate
     crime/border/troops/guns endorsement.
  • Trying to vote in Tarrant and Dallas counties was a nightmare, and it was even worse in other parts of the the state. This should never, ever happen. And even Mrs. LL noticed that the Star-Telegram's Bud Kennedy was royally pissed off. But some people had a stick-to-it quality you just had to admire. 
  • Here's my hottest political opinion: Tarrant County is about to have a Fall and Near Future Political Bloodbath.
    • Even with the shortage of Democrat voting machines in Tarrant County, the Dems had 152,676 turn out (55%) vs. 122,802 for Republicans (45%). (Unofficial numbers.)
    • For all those local politicians in Tarrant County who are subject to a county-wide vote and who fear the county turning Blue, they just became a lot more nervous last night. 
    • This will probably most interest lawyers, but I think this is a fascinating predictor: There are eight Republican district judges who have drawn a Democrat opponent. (The 48th, 67th, 96th, 153rd, 213th, 342nd, 360th, and CDC #2). In each of those races last night, those Republicans all received around 99,000 votes. Their opponents who appeared on the Democratic ballot, in contract, got around 110,000 votes. As a specific example for the upcoming General Election preview, in CDC #2 Republican Wayne Salvant received 98,454 votes while his Democratic challenger, Karen Williams, received 112,654. 
    • The general election, and the Trump Turnout, might very well change the numbers, but I bet you will see the beginning of every judgeship in Tarrant County start to turn Democrat this fall. If not then, it absolutely will happen in 2022.
    • That's exactly what happened in Dallas and Harris Counties and now it will happen to Tarrant. The reverse, Democrat to Republican, happened in Tarrant County in the late 1980s, so it's not like this is uncharted territory. 
    • Now you know why the Republican controlled Texas legislature just got rid of straight-ticket voting.
  • By comparison, Wise County had 10,142 Republicans vote (85%) compared to 1,842 Democrats (15%). Ain't nothing changing her. 
  • And Texas still looks Red based upon the total votes: 1,990,012 (R) vs. 1,617,703 (D) by last count
  • Ticket Fans: Jan McDowell didn't make the runoff for the House District 24 after receiving only 10.2% of the vote. 
  • On obscure statewide races like the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, I've always wondered how many votes I'd get if I didn't spend a dime but still got my name on the ballot. Let's face it, no one knows who to vote for when you see those names come up on the ballot. People just pick a good looking name. And, let's face it, I've got a good looking name: "Barry Green." Five letters each. Repeating letters in the third and fourth positions.  Heck, it's the Brad Pitt of names. 
  • As seen below, why are there so many DWI cases being tried this week in Tarrant County with an alleged alcohol concentration greater than 0.15? I watch this trial board all the time and it's unusual to see even one. They should all be resolved by the plea process. My conspiracy theory is that misdemeanor prosecutors are cherry-picking to help their winning percentage, but that's just a wild guess.
  • Messenger: Above the Fold