Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts

A faithful reader sent me this after seeing it along a Wise County road.

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• I can't believe Chief Justice Roberts confirmed the authenticity of the draft opinion.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• So who leaked it? There are two theories out there.
• A Dirty Lib did it: Someone inside the court is so mad that Roe is going to be overruled he or she threw a Hail Mary and released the draft opinion in hopes that the public outcry will be enough to back some of the judges off. Ted Cruz said this was the obvious answer yesterday and, when asked how he knew this he said, "Because I’m not a moron; because I live on planet Earth.” I'm not sure about either one of those assertions, but this theory makes sense. It is the Occam's razor answer. 
  
  
  
• A Hardline Right Winger did it: One of the judges in the five vote majority to overrule Roe is slipping away so a Roe hater had the draft released to put pressure on him to get back in the fold. Let's explore this theory.
  
  
  
• Let's assume for the sake of argument that Kavanaugh has decided to do the following: Let the Mississippi 15 week abortion ban law stand but not overrule Roe. He instead just wants to say it is a reasonable restriction under Casey. If that happened, you would end up with a "plurality opinion" where the strict Mississippi abortion law stands but the vote would be 4-2-3. Four to let the law stand because Roe should overruled, two (Kavanaugh and Roberts) in a concurrence to let the law stand because the restriction is constitutional under Roe and Casey, and three dissenting. 
• That's still a win for the far right wing conservatives, but it's not the Holy Grail of having Roe overturned.  That's a big deal.  This is the best, and maybe final chance, to kill Roe. This is what they've been waiting for for decades. And now if they see that Kavanaugh is slipping away, they will want to stop him and bring him back.
• So what if you are Kavanaugh right now? You were very close to leaving the majority and vote with Roberts in a concurrence. But now, if you do that, all your right wing buddies at the Federalist Society who got you on the Court will know that you are the only reason that Roe still lives. You will be that guy. 
• Would the pressure work? Heck, he's a man who cried about drinking beer during his confirmation hearing so maybe he can be swayed. You think he wants to be the lone moderate wolf of courage here?  That would be why those trying to manipulate him released the draft. 
• This ain't a bad theory. 
• She might end up being right again. 9/5/18:
  
  
  
• Preach on. 
  
  
  
• So where does America stand on abortion? I think that most would love a fantasy land where no one ever thinks they need one, but we all agree that world doesn't exist. So I think most Americans  wants the option available so long as there are reasonable restrictions placed upon it. You don't like "abortion on demand" but you also don't like the sound of "Roe is overruled."  You kind of want something in the middle which, actually, is kind of what we have now under Roe and Casey. That leaves us with the current legitimate arguments over whether a Mississippi 15 week ban, or a Texas 6 week ban, is too great of a restriction.  It's hard, isn't it? That's where Kavanaugh (or maybe Amy Coney Barrett) might be.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• I'll say it again: If Roe is overruled, Texas law will automatically become the strictest in the nation making a abortion a crime from the moment of conception. There is no exception for rape or incest. Those you have elected have already voted for that. 
• But all of those in Texas who voted to make the state the strictest in the land were quiet yesterday after the news of the draft opinion leak. This was in stark contrast to the scene when the law was signed:
  
  
  
• Back to simpler things.  Decatur completed a massive comeback in early voting and trounced Bridgeport. Heck, Boyd almost snuck into second place with a strong final two days. Watching all of this was kind of fun. 
  
  
  
• David Chappelle was attacked last night. And there's video.
  
  
  
• Candidates in Tarrant County for County Judge and District Attorney are trying to cash in on CRT straw man scare tactics. And are doing so in Dallas at a country club (get the irony there?) and in an event hosted by a Burleson based PAC.
  
  
  
• The official prosecutors association in Texas had a great Twitter thread yesterday summarizing the latest criminal data released by Texas courts.  Here are two that jumped out at me:
• I think this is amazing. The number of misdemeanor cases actually filed in court has plummeted now for several years.  And felony cases have a slight rise but are pretty flat overall. 
  
  
  
• The other thing is that filed traffic offenses have plummeted over recent years. I'm guessing that there are simply less total traffic stops in general (which would correspond to the drop in jailable misdemeanor cases, above, since DWI and almost all drug cases originate from traffic stops.)
  
  
  
• Oh, man. I only knew here through the meme. 
  
  
  
• Whoever was running the board in Colorado last night might be going through a personal thing. 
  
  
  
• Messenger: Above the Fold

Random Tuesday Morning Thoughts

Rick Santorum, who had just conceded the Republic presidential nomination to Mitt Romney, stood behind Lindsay Lohan at the 2012 White House Correspondents Dinner. 

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• In a double bombshell, Politico got ahold of a leaked draft (first bomb) of the written opinion which has been circulated in the Supreme Court which will overrule Roe vs. Wade (second bomb.) Man, what a scoop. I don't think there's any question that it is real. 
  
  
  
• The pdf of the opinion is here. I can't believe I'm seeing a leaked draft -- something that never happens.   I don't even have time to go into how the news of the leak is the second biggest legal story in decades. 
  
  
  
• I've said for as long as I can remember that constitutional law is made up along the way. And who sits on the court decides what the law will be.   Those voting to overturn Roe are the author, Alito, and Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Coney Barrett, and Thomas. Those against are Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan. Roberts we don't know about. 
• It's mind-boggling that all of this is because of Donald Trump (and Mitch McConnell's refusal to hold hearings on Obama nominee Merrick Garland.) 
• So can this draft opinion change? Yes. But I bet it doesn't in any substantive way. It's a full evisceration of Roe which was its intent. 
• Barricades went up around the Supreme Court last night after the story was released. 
  
  
  
• If the opinion stands, there is no reason to believe that same-sex marriage cannot be outlawed (overruling Obergefell), homosexual conduct criminalized (overruling  Lawrence), contraception criminally banned (overruling Griswold) and interracial marriage forbidden (overruling Loving.)  The reasoning in all of them is exactly the same as Roe.
• Ted Cruz's deleted tweet this weekend, which everyone thought was a inadvertent text message, might actually have been a warning. 
  
  
  
• So what happens if the draft becomes the actual opinion of the Court in June or July? It then will fall on each state legislature do decide whether abortion is illegal  and under what circumstances. But some already have in that they have laws totally banning abortion on the books set to take effect, called "trigger laws", once the final Supreme Court ruling is handed down.  Bottom line: The poor will be punished. The rich, who can afford to travel, will get their procedure. 
  
  
  
• Texas is one of those states and has a trigger law which will make it a first degree felony for the doctor to perform an abortion at any time after conception. (It is even far more restrictive than the different and controversial six-week "Bounty Bill.)  It automatically goes into effect 30 days after the upcoming Supreme Court ruling is handed down. 
  
  
   
  
  
  
• Here was how the Texas Senate voted on that bill. A Yea vote outlaws abortion:
  
  
  
• Here are the Texas House votes. A Yea vote outlaws abortion: 
  
  
  
• This was going to be my lead story. The January 6th Committee wants to hear from Wise County congressional representative Ronny Jackson and his connection to the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys. This letter is so good in its series of questions they directed towards him. 
  
  
  

  

  (Click to enlarge)

  
  
• Remember that the Oath Keepers are the ones with an arsenal in an hotel across the Potomac on January 6th and were ready for a revolution. Two them have already pled guilty to seditious conspiracy -- that ain't trespassing. 
  

  

  
  
  
  
• This is the leader of the Oath Keepers who is referred to in the letter to Ronny Jackson. His case is still pending.  
  
  
  
• In after-thought news, Decatur has made a monumental comeback in early voting winning yesterday 161-119 and taking a total lead of 855-823. Today is the last day to early vote. If all of the above taught you anything, it's that voting matters. 
  
  
  
• Still on the run! An arrest warrant has now been issued for the sheriff's deputy. 
  
  
  
• That's a lot of blood on that shirt in the ER room. Click for enlargement.  I doubt the confrontation started with just a polite "Hey, be more cautious," but whatever the words were they didn't justify the beating. 
  
  
  
• I didn't know Wise County had an axe throwing establishment. They wisely put the liability waiver you have sign next to the BYOB link. 
  
• Edit: BagOfNothing was at that axe throwing place a couple of weeks ago he tells me. 

Random Monday Morning Thoughts

Saw this at the county courthouse back in the day. I never did find out who it was, although I didn't particularly have any desire whatsoever to meet him. 

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•  The tornado in Kansas on Friday evening, which remarkably killed no one, is the most amazing visual depiction of a twister I've ever seen. These are four videos I marked:  Here (18 seconds), here (11 seconds) here (1:18) , and here (the one which is being about the most.)
  
  
  
• This contest I made up on a lark is getting kid of fun. With a huge win on Friday, 173-132, Decatur now only trails Bridgeport in early voting by a total of 704 to 694.  Only two more early voting days left. 
  
  
  
  
• I find it mindboggling anyone would donate a cent to this publicity stunt. 
  
  
  
• Troopers which are called to the border average extra overtime pay of $41,000. But some are really cashing in. A "36-year-old captain stationed in the border city of Del Rio earned roughly $164,000 in overtime" and "two other lieutenants . . .   each netted nearly $150,000 working extra hours."   Remember that the next time you have to stand in line for hours, due to being understaffed, when you have to get your license renewed. 
  
  
  
• Bad Texas Sheriff. Bad Chief Deputy. "According to the Van Zandt County District Attorney's Office, Sheriff Steve Hendrix, Chief Dep. Jerry Wood and Sgt. Blake Snell were found to have witnessed ex-chief deputy Craig Shelton's use of excessive force against an inmate, identified as Nicholas Crouch, and lied to a Texas Ranger when interviewed prior in Dec 2021, according to the indictment handed up by a local grand jury." After calling the charges "baseless", the Sheriff announced his resignation. 
  
  
  
• Hardly anyone is coming out and expressly saying it, but everyone is assuming the death of Naomi Judd was due to a suicide.  (The daughters said in a statement that "We lost our beautiful mother to the disease of mental illness."). They were actually on hand in Nashville last night, one day after announcing her death, to accept The Judds induction into the Country Music Hall of Fame.
  
  
  
• This is pretty wild. The sheriff's office detention officer said she was going to drop off the inmate, who is doing 75 years on a murder conviction, at the courthouse for a mental evaluation, and then she was going to see her own doctor because she wasn't feeling well.    There was no mental evaluation scheduled at the courthouse, and she never showed up at her doctor's office. The guy would be hard to miss: He's 6' 9" tall. 
  
  
  
• I'll admit I'd go nuts if the Trump Administration created a "Disinformation Governance Board." 
  
  
  
• I promise you that right out of law school when I was working for a big Dallas law firm that I joined a gym in Uptown (before it was Uptown but it was still pretty high tone), and one day I looked over and saw Boris Becker right beside me with two trainers on a bench press machine.  He didn't seem to be particularly interested in working out. 
  
  
  
• So the complaining witness testified to the alleged assault for prosecutors and then just got up and left the courtroom before cross-examination? Hey, I'm no constitutional expert, but that Confrontation Clause in the 6th Amendment would seem to come into play here. And the judge trying to solve that problem by telling jurors they should “strike [her testimony] from your minds as if it never happened” shouldn't be able to magically cure the problem.  
  
  
  
• I've thought about this for over a week: In the April 24th Sunday edition of the Dallas Morning News, respected financial columnist Scott Burns had a step by step program on how he helped a friend retire at 62. So . . . 
  
  
  
• . . . after going through several paragraphs regarding the best use of retirement plans, social security, and healthcare, it was time to talk about finding his buddy a place to retire to in Florida.  "This is exciting," I thought. How were they going to pull this off? Then came the payoff . . .  
  
  
  
• It was only the second time in history that UT didn't have a player drafted by the NFL.
  
  
  
• I keep hearing every one busting on Jerry Jones for drafting "another" player out of his alma mater, Arkansas, when he took John Ridgeway in the 5th round this year. But this was only the second time ever he has drafted a Razorback. The first time was Felix Jones in 2008.