11.04.2020

Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts


  • I've got hot sports opinions about last night but, as the hardest working man in show business, let's get you up to date . . . 
  • Here's what we know at 8:32 a.m. 
    • It appears the presidential race is down to three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those votes are still being counted. 
    • For Biden to win, he needs two of the three. 
    • If you went to bed thinking Trump won all three of them, I've got some news for you.  Trump's leads in two of three are now gone. 
    • At this moment . . . 
      • Michigan: With 90% of the vote in, it just moved to Biden 20 minutes ago. He leads by 11,946 votes. This is the state to watch this morning.   Its Secretary of State said an hour ago that we will know Michigan's results today. 
      • Wisconsin: 97% is in and Biden is leading by 20,697. It's been trending towards Biden all night.
      • Pennsylvania: Only 75% is in and Trump is leading by 618,840. The counting is slow. From here on out, the absentee ballots (1.4 million of them to be counted!) will cut into that lead. We won't know the results until Friday. Despite Trump's lead, it could end up being a toss-up right now. And the state might end up not mattering at all. 
  • Those links will give you updated information.  This is all so insane. And who knew the Big 10 would decide it all?  
  • What do I comfortably think?: Joe Biden is the next President of the United States of America. 
  • Why has Biden gained in those three states since you went to bed? This is important: In-person votes were counted first in those states (which leaned towards Trump) and the absentee ballots are being counted now (leans towards Biden.) Understand that the exact opposite occurred in North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia last evening where absentee ballots were counted first. Biden jumped out to an early lead and then Trump kept eating into those leads and came in for the win later when in-person votes were counted. 
  • Trump knew in the middle of the night that trouble was brewing. What he did what was predicted: 

  • Man, Trump got mad when Fox News was the first network to call Arizona for Biden last night. (Other than the AP, no other news organization has gone that far even this morning, but it looks to be safely Biden's.) Arizona, in the end, might end up being the biggest blow to Trump's re-election campaign. He probably wants to rethink that John McCain bashing right about now. 
  • There are two wild cards out there: Georgia and Nevada. Especially Georgia. 
    • In Georgia, it looked like Trump was going to win it (and he still is winning it) with 92% of the vote in.  But all during the night, Trump's lead has been shrinking. It's now down to 103,760. And based upon where the outstanding ballots are from, the New York Times thinks Biden will catch Trump. Make no mistake, Georgia is a toss up right now. If Biden wins Georgia, he only needs one of the states of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania. 

    • On the other hand, everyone assumed from the start that Nevada would go to Biden. It's a heck of a lot closer than everyone thought. The only thing left are mail-in ballots. 

  • Quick thoughts even if Biden wins:
    • I thought if Trump lost that the Republican Party would distance themselves from him like nobody's business. It's just the opposite. He's the new Reagan. A crazy version of Reagan, but the new Reagan nevertheless. 
    • If you were a Republican Senator or Representative who embraced Trump, you did exactly the right thing. You won re-election. The Republicans held onto the Senate and picked up a couple of seats in the House. 
    • I'm stunned the Trump did as well as he did. There is a serious, serious divide in this country. I knew it was bad, but it's worse than I thought. 
  • Wise County: You boys didn't disappoint. Trump won by 83.92%. Last time is was 83.84%.  The consistency is amazing. 
  • I was right about Texas not turning Blue. I predicted Trump 51% to 47%.  

  • I was absolutely wrong about Democrats taking the Texas House in the legislature. 
  • One of the most confounding things is that Texas Hispanics didn't overwhelming vote for Biden. It's jaw-dropping, and this is a major political story. Look at Starr County where Hillary won by 60% in 2016:  

  • I was expecting Tarrant County to turn Blue but that didn't happen.  All the down ballot Republicans won 53% to 47% so all their judges are safe.  But look at the presidential race: 

  • Races I was watching:
    • Colin Allred won.

    • Jeff Leach, my nemesis, won.

    • In the "clock boy" race:

    • I forgot to mention Wendy Davis yesterday. 

  • Oh, yeah: Texas hospitalizations: +166. Contrary to Facebook, it ain't going away because of today's date. 



at 8:32 AM

11.03.2020

Random Tuesday Morning Thoughts

 

  • Tonight: "It's the Season Finale of America."
    (Ok, maybe I'm a little worked up this morning.)

  • Texas Hospitalizations: +79.

  • Trump made one last appeal to the nation this morning on Fox and Friends. 

  • Things I'm interested in (and some predictions) other than the presidential race: 
    • The 12 contested judicial races in Tarrant County. After the primaries, I spent several bullet points predicting an ill wind was blowing for Republicans there. And if one goes, they all will probably all go. 
    • Whether phony Jeff Leach loses his Texas House seat in Collin County. (He's just a personal nemeses who I picked out of nowhere.)
      "You got dope in that truck, pretty boy?"

    • Also in Collin County, how bad Colin Allred beats Genevieve Collins in their Congressional race. 

    • Whether Islamophobic Beth Van Duyne loses in her bid to get to Congress. (Any of you remember "Clock Boy"?)

    • If Trump carries Wise County by more than the 83.84% he did last time. (I'm still amazed by that number. I mean, I know you people very well, but sheesh.) 
    • Whether Democrats take the Texas State House. There's a real possibility of this happening. That's probably the biggest story no one is paying attention to. 
    • Whether there is a Blue Wave in Denton County.  I think something really weird is going on next door. 
    • The margin of victory of Cornyn over Hegar. I don't think that one is close. 
  • I'm voting for Lady Gaga's shoes. 

  • Presidential Predictions/Thoughts:
    • I think we will know who wins by 2:00 a.m. There will not be a long drawn out fight in the courts. There might be threats of lawsuits, but nothing substantive. 
    • Florida doesn't wait until the polls close to count its early votes and will release them when  the polls close. If that shows Biden clearly winning Florida, the entire presidential race can be called by 9:00 p.m. If Biden wins Florida, it's over. 
    • I don't think there will be a clear winner of Florida by 9:00 p.m. 
    • I don't think Biden wins Texas. We forget that Trump beat Hillary 52% to 43% in 2016. I'll call it Trump 51% to Biden's 47%.  Texas turning Blue will happen soon but that day is not today.
    • But if Biden wins Texas, it is the story tomorrow. Heck, it would decide the entire next generation of presidential races in one single swoop. 
    • I don't know what the combination of states it will be, but the Official Liberally Lean Triple Play Take-It-To-The-Bank Bet-The-House prediction: It's Biden over Trump. 
    • This isn't a race of the Pro-Biden vote vs. the Pro-Trump vote. It is the Anti-Trump vote vs. the Trump vote.  And I think the Anti-Trump vote comes out with a vengeance. 
    • Remember four years ago when I tried to get a guy to bet me $20,000 that Hillary would beat Trump? Yep, me too. 
  • If you really like polling and predictions for this presidential race, go to this page on fivethirtyeight.com especially if you are on desktop/laptop where you can hover your mouse over various things. It is so cool. 

  • In all of Texas, there are only three contested DA races on the ballot today. 
  • I had a traumatic dental issue this morning. Let's just say: (1) I'm glad wearing a mask is acceptable, and (2) Right now I look like a certain boxer from back in the day. 
    "BARRY!"

  • If you haven't voted, go ahead and do it for if no other reason than this: It feels good. 
  • The Lincoln Project tries to bring it home . . . 

  • "'Good luck. We're all counting on you.' - Airplane (1980)"  -- Liberally Lean (2020)



at 8:30 AM

11.02.2020

Random Monday Morning Thoughts


  • Texas Hospitalizations: 5,691. It's been a little flat over the last four days. I'm beginning to think this isn't going to be as dramatic as late June, but it's still trending up.

  • Early voting is over. Here's a handy map showing, in green, counties where early voting exceeded the entire voting total of 2016. It's almost entirely big cities and their suburbs. But look at little Wise County sneaking in there. (My crackerjack Graphics Department added the "x" on us.) I have no idea what this means.

  • The Tarrant County Republican Party, which is understandably scared the entire county will turn Blue after Beto beat Cruz there two years ago, is sending these flyer out in the mail in support of Republican judges who are up for election. Not only do they fall back on scare techniques ("dangerous criminals"),  they are lying here: Only three of the judges pictured have criminal jurisdiction. All the others are civil or family court judges. 

  • The Trump vendor was out in Bridgeport yesterday at 101/380 selling Trump flags . . . and Confederate flags. 

  • It's finally here tomorrow. 

  • The Trump rolling caravans (affectionately referred to as “Y’all Qaeda” by some) were all over the place this weekend, but it was wild on I-35 when a Bubba Truck went to the shoulder and forced a Biden bus-trailing car out of the far right lane. Trump approved of the conduct even though both the FBI and Texas DPS said they would investigate. 



  • Someone needs to tell the Dallas Morning News that one week before Saturday's game against TCU, Baylor played Texas.  (Unless this is some glitch in the Matrix.) 
    Yesterday's TCU game recap story

    From Saturday's preview story

  • Saw stuff like this a lot last night, and it was all funny. (GIF, which is even funnier, is here.)

  • Remember young ladies, there's a "place for you in America" if you meet certain conditions. Video.

  • Halloween comedy.


  • Legal technical stuff: We had an appellate court ruling last week that, under the standing COVID Emergency Orders issued by the Texas Supreme Court, if a criminal defendant and the trial judge want to proceed to a trial before a court without a jury, they can force the State to do it. 
  • I finally watched Taxi Driver for the first time this weekend. It's basically Joker. And both are equally disturbing for their day in time. 
  • A federal judge will now rule on the Republicans effort to boot 127,000 Texas votes today (he'll throw it out like the Texas Supreme Court did yesterday) . . . 


at 8:32 AM

10.30.2020

It's Friday. Let's Get Out of Here.

at 2:30 PM

Random Friday Morning Thoughts

 


  • Texas Hospitalizations: -63. A rare negative day during this rise.

  • Just announced after yesterday's numbers were tabulated: More people have voted early this year in Texas than in all of 2016. (9,009,850 to 8,969,226.) And we still have today and November 3rd to go. 
  • The Texas Republican Party finally released its official platform this week. Some wild things in their for the GOP: They called for the abolishment of CPS, that all consents to search obtained by police by video recorded, allow anyone to sit for the Texas Bar Exam regardless of whether they went to law school, abolish civil forfeiture, limit the use of "no knock" search warrants by police, and ban collective bargaining with police unions.
  • Just like I predicted it would happen. I must have some sort of gift:

  • The Texas Department of Criminal Justice has deleted all of its "Spooky Week" posts where they thought it would be a good idea to make light of the places where people are held in cages. 
  • There was a crazy story in the Star-Telegram of a Dallas man selling a teenager he met on the Internet to another guy in South Carolina.  If that's not nuts enough, all three signed a contract for the $5,000 sale.  

  • Every. Single. Year. Once again, there is no one giving away their edibles. 

  • Still quality Halloween humor: 

  • Google's parent company released quarterly earnings yesterday. It's just mind-boggling: $46.2 billion in revenues with a net profit of $11 billion. Once again, that's for three months. But they aren't the only tech company doing well:

  • Jerry Falwell Jr. is suing Liberty University for terminating him without "properly investigating" the scandalous claims against him. He's out of his mind. Now he and his wife will have to sit down in a deposition and talk about the pool boy. You don't' want to talk about the pool boy. 

  • Ticket Fans and or Decatur Fans: The guest football prediction picker this morning was a "Kyle" who identified himself as a 1993 graduate of Decatur High and football player, went to Texas Tech, and now resides in Keller. He said his qualifications for picking games were two catches for six yards. (Funny). 
  • Just a random pic of the Lt. Gov. of Idaho. Everyone loves bits. 

  • A county employee out of Falls County won $4 million in a products liability suit after he basically lost his foot while working. I found it interesting because the large verdict was in federal court (instead of state court) where you normally don't see such large numbers in personal injury cases.  The story also says he was offered $500,000 to settle before trial. I always like to find out who the losing lawyers are in cases like that because an experience like that is a complete beat down. The two were out of Thompson, Coe in Dallas with one going to Baylor Law and the other UT Law. 

  • Say what?

  • Remember this case? A shooting near Greenville at a Halloween party led to the false arrest of a man who spent nine days in jail before the case was dropped. He told the cops he had nothing to do with it but they wouldn't listen. His lawyer now wants $3.1 million.  Just spit-balling here,  but since the same thing happened to Aric Maxwell in Wise County, except he spent six months in jail, how much is his case worth?

  • Speaking of -- Time that has passed since the Wise County Sheriff's Office has failed to solve the murder of Lauren Whitener at Lake Bridgeport: 1 year, 3 months, 25 days.
  • Messenger: Above the Fold (I didn't screw up the link this time.)



at 8:31 AM
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